by João Marcelo
SAO PAULO – With the historical retraction of GDP, -4.1%, also caused by the new Coronavirus, Brazil leaves the team of the 10 largest economies in the world. The country now occupies the twelfth position, surpassed by Canada, South Korea and Russia, according to a survey carried out by the risk rating agency, Austin Rating. In 2019, Brazil ranked ninth.
In October last year, a survey carried out by researchers from the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV), Marcel Balassiano and Cláudio Considera, based on projections made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), already pointed out that Brazil would be left behind. According to Ibre / FGV, Brazil, like most of the world, suffered a sharp reduction in economic activity last year, due to the coronavirus crisis and its impacts on the economy. In addition, Brazil is one of the countries in the world where the currency has been most devalued.
“With this, in terms of dollars, current prices, the country would move from the ninth largest economy in the world in 2019, to the 12th position in 2020. But, much of the change in position between 2019 and 2020 is due to exchange rate depreciation, and not (only) the fall in economic activity “. Researchers say in a study published on the blog Ibre / FGV
Also according to the survey, the country will not fully recover now in the year 2021. “Only 1/3 of the countries in the world will eliminate economic losses in the year 2021, with most of them emerging economies. thus, the consequences of the 2020 recession will still be felt, at least, until 2022 “. Researchers design.
In an article published by Folha de São Paulo based on the Macro Ibre Bulletin (Brazilian Institute of Economics at FGV) in February, he points out that the pace of vaccination has become the main determinant of how much and when economies will recover this year.